As of this writing, it looks like it’ll be 281 Electoral votes for Bush, 257 for Kerry. Iowa could swing to Kerry still, but it looks like Bush has both Ohio and New Mexico sewn up at this point. I’m wondering why none of the major news agencies have called it yet. I dug into the county-by-county data on the remaining states, and it seems pretty clear that the election has been won.
Obviously I’m overlooking something.
Interesting side-note: if you want to predict something, find out what odds are being given in Vegas. Bush was favored 6:4 in Vegas, and that’s a city that is going to vote for Kerry. Not that it matters. Money talks for those oddsmakers, not politics. They’ve got a vested interest in calling things accurately.
CNN hasn’t called Ohio for Bush yet, but he’s leading by over 110,000 votes there with less than 3% of the precincts still out. Fox and MSNBC have both predicted Ohio for Bush.
Iowa also has 3% still out, and Bush has a slim lead there. Sure, there are enough uncounted votes to completely reverse the leads in both Iowa and Ohio, but statistically speaking that’s not usually what happens.
I really, really want to go to bed.
I also really, really want the election to be OVER tomorrow. I want to be able to say confidently that nobody stole this election (unless you argue that the two major parties stole it from everyone else by spending enormous amounts of money… in which case you’ve called the whole system into question, and now’s not the best time for that.)