So there’s this article about a poll in which the pollsters announce what it is that Americans believe regarding New Orleans. It’s significant in that some of the finger-pointing that is going on is reflected in the poll, and will certainly be reflected in any upcoming elections.

The result they lead with, however, is that “most Americans believe New Orleans will never recover.”

Why does that matter? Most doctors didn’t believe Lance Armstrong would ever recover. Most of my friends didn’t believe I’d be full-time cartooning for more than six months. I’m sure we could come up with example after example of the “majority” believing that a small minority or an individual will not be able to accomplish the tasks which are set before him or her, and then that minority or individual pulling it off.

It’s almost like the pollsters and/or those reporting the results are trying to kill the city of New Orleans with bad vibes. I can see the value in telling us what the people think of the President, or the Governor, or the Mayor because at some point those elected officials may want to get RE-elected. But polling people who don’t live in New Orleans about rebuilding the city can only hinder the effort to rebuild it. After all, if most Americans think the city will never recover, then wouldn’t most Americans object to seeing tax dollars spent on the effort (note: THAT is not a question that was asked).

Then at the end the pollsters state their margin of error:

For poll results based on the total sample, one can say with 95 percent
confidence that the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage
points. For results based on the 268 respondents who say the city of
New Orleans will completely recover from the effects of Katrina, the
maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Did you catch that? The overall margin for error is 4 percent, but it’s SIX percent for the minority who actually think the city will recover completely. It’s not good enough that a majority thinks it won’t, now the pollsters have to cast statistical aspersions on the people who think it will.

Me, I know the city can never be exactly like it was before. Every city changes: knock one building down, close one family-owned deli, put in a traffic signal, and the city will “never be the same.” I believe that New Orleans will see an economic boom, and will emerge from this as a thriving port metropolis with a rich culture and rich history, of which this hurricane is only a part. Chris Muir said it pretty well: Can they rebuild? “They’ll make it look… well, the city IS called The Big Easy.”

Link turns eight years old tomorrow.

This last Sunday he had his baptismal interview with the Bishop.

Monday was a party at Chuck E. Cheese.

We had a family party this afternoon, with cake and presents. It was simple stuff, much of it from thrift stores and Kid-to-Kid, but he was happy.

Tomorrow he goes to Cub Scouts for the first time.

Thursday is his first soccer game.

Friday the grandparents arrive.

Saturday is the baptism, which I’ll be performing.

Sunday he gets to sit on the stand next to the Bishop during Sacrament meeting.

I know it may not sound like a busy week for ME, but this is my SON we’re talking about here. I’m feeling a little anxious for him at every step of the way.

I’m also very, VERY grateful that I get to be a part of so much of this. Thank you, God, for convincing me that it was possible for me to work from home. And thank YOU, dear readers, for being part of that possibility. I love being a cartoonist, but lately most of why I love it is because I love my family MORE.

–Howard

I was ruminating on the war in Iraq, and had a couple of thoughts:

1) I don’t believe the Joint Chiefs are stupid enough to not have envisioned the levels of terrorist insurgency we see in Iraq.
2) I don’t believe they are politically motivated enough to not have planned for it at some level.

Those thoughts led to this:
3) What if the insurgency we’re seeing is PART of the plan?

And then it hit me: fly-paper.

Summary of plan: Take down an Arab nation, and install Western militaries and a western-style democracy in it. That nation will become a terrorist magnet. Not only will it become a potential killing field for the worst the Islamofascists have to offer, it might also provide westerners with money trails elsewhere. The only drawback is that U.S. and other Western soldiers become a sort of very heavily armed bait. To those able to think in terms of “acceptable losses” and “collateral damage,” this is preferable to U.S. citizens being targeted on home soil.

Now, before the flames get lit, please understand that I’m not trying to justify the western presence in Iraq. I’m trying to UNDERSTAND it. In the context of the word “fly-paper,” it starts to make a scary kind of sense. If you’re up against a widely distributed enemy who is determined to hit you guerrilla style, presenting that enemy with attractive targets that turn out to be traps is a strategy with significant historical precedent (though obviously it may suffer in implementation). It has been employed against 20th-century guerrillas and WWI German submarines, 19th-century indigenous peoples, and 18th-century pirates.

This might also explain some of the White House rhetoric. Under a plan like this, Bush, Rumsfeld, and others would be required to sound a) just intelligent enough to their own people that we don’t turn on them, thus “staying the course,” and b) stupid enough to the terrorists that they continue to believe that throwing money and people into the meat-grinder is a winning strategy.

*sigh*

It’s likely that I’m completely wrong, thinking like a writer of complex fictions rather than a military strategist. But if this post disappears suddenly, you’ll know the NSA had to shut me up before I ruined everything.

–Howard

(EDIT: It turns out I’m not only not the first person to think of this, but I posted this exactly two years TO THE DAY after Andrew Sullivan did. Creeeepy.)

This article makes me happy. It talks about the current state of things at Camp Williams, Utah’s home-away-from-home for Katrina refugees. It’s not all roses and lollipops, but it’s a big upgrade from a toxic lake.

I especially like the picture.

–Howard